Top Guns Trader Alerts!
Editor: David Moenning
Introducing Top Guns Trader Alerts
The Top Guns Trader is a trading and market analysis service which delivers a professional's approach to market timing, stock selection, trading, and portfolio strategy - all in real-time.
The Top Guns Trader is edited by Chief Investment Strategist, Mr. David Moenning. Dave is President and Chief Investment Officer of a Chicago-based Investment Management Firm and has been managing client money "live on the firing line" in the stock market since 1987. Mr. Moenning developed the Top Guns trading method for his clients seeking an active stock trading approach.
It's Really FOUR SERVICES in One!
We strive to provide our members with everything they need to become more successful investors. For this reason, the Top Guns Trader is really the very best of each of Dave's portfolio services all rolled up into one:
1. THE DAILY DECISION -- If the most recent Bear Market has proved anything, it is that investors cannot survive with a "long only" strategy. Thus, Dave incorporates his Daily Decision market timing model into the Trader. This trading strategy employs easy-to-use ETF's and "goes both ways" (long and short) in the market.
2. THE TOP GUNS STOCK TRADER -- Dave's objective is to identify shorter-term trading opportunities using our proprietary Top Guns universe of stocks. The focus is on the "Top Guns" of the market -- the top rated companies in terms of earnings strength and company performance.
3. THE "GO ANYWHERE" GLOBAL STRATEGY -- Dave brings the best trading ideas from his "GO ANYWHERE GLOBAL PORTFOLIO" into the Trader service by including his top ETF trades into the Trader.
4. THE "STATE OF THE MARKETS" -- Members are kept up to speed on the markets, breaking news, and our latest up-to-the-minute trading strategy via our "Daily State of the Markets" and Real-Time Portfolio Strategy reports. We also review the market from a "big picture" perspective in our weekend edition of "State of the Markets."
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What You Receive:
We think it is important for those considering our service to know exactly what you will be receiving from us. So here's a summary of the reports you will begin receiving once you've signed up for a free-trial:
LIVE TRADE ALERTS -- We send a "real-time" TRADE ALERT! via email BEFORE every trade we make. These live reports tell members EXACTLY what we are about to do and why we are doing it. (To avoid any conflicts, we demand that editors wait until after members have received the TRADE ALERT! to actually enter our trades.) Each TRADE ALERT! includes:
- The EXACT Amount we are Trading
- Security Name
- Ticker Symbol
LIVE PORTFOLIO STRATEGY -- Included in each TRADE ALERT! is our up-to-the-minute portfolio strategy. We believe it is critical to understand WHY we are making every move.
"DAILY STATE OF THE MARKETS" Morning Market Analysis -- Start each morning with us as we prepare ourselves for the trading day (we think of this report as our "pre-game warm-up.") Please note that we do not believe in rehashing the news -- instead we strive to keep our members "in-tune" with the markets, economic data, and breaking news, as well as the important factors to the market each day. We also provide an Audio Version of the report for those members that prefer to multi-task while getting ready for the trading day.
WEEKLY ROUND-UP -- Every week we update members on trading activity, current holdings, and performance of our portfolios.
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The Top Guns Approach
Our objective is to focus our trading on the "top guns" of the market -- which we define as the top rated companies in the top performing industry groups. We start with a proprietary list of 1500 Stocks - the largest, most liquid stocks traded in the United States.
On a weekly basis, we then narrow the field to our Top Guns universe. We begin by identifying the top industries in terms of relative strength, momentum, and industry indicators. Next, every stock is ranked in terms of earnings strength, earnings momentum and company performance. We then generate a list of only the top ranked stocks in each of the top industry groups and sectors. This cuts the field to approximately 150 "Top Guns."
Next, our Stock Selection Team reviews each chart from a technical standpoint in search of the best short-term trading opportunities. We then monitor the market at all times in search of entry points. And as we've stated, whenever we are ready to enter a trade, we send a real-time TRADE ALERT! e-mail with all the important details BEFORE we make the trade.
Although Top Guns is a growth oriented investment strategy, all of our portfolios employ risk management strategies to reduce exposure to market risk during severe Bear Market environments. In Bull markets we strive to maximize returns with our "own the best and ignore the rest" approach. However, when risk is high, our focus shifts to managing risk and preserving capital. Thus, a constant in our management approach is to remain flexible and take advantage of opportunities.
What Makes Us Different?
One of the questions we get asked all the time is: What makes our Top Guns Trader different from all the other newsletters out there? Frankly, we believe there are three reasons why our service is compelling and is something that expert-level traders as well as investors of all levels shouldn't be without:
1. We are REAL MONEY MANAGERS - The Top Guns Trader is run by full-time professional traders, not journalists or investors who treat the market as a hobby. Our trading professionals average more than 17 years of experience of managing money in the stock market.
2. We run REAL PORTFOLIOS -- We put real $money$ on the line (ours). The Top Guns Trader is run EXACTLY as the alerts are sent and are "live" for all to see.
3. We provide REAL-TIME GUIDANCE -- We keep you up to the minute with "live" Trading Alerts, real-time Portfolio Strategy, and real-time Market Analysis.
Performance, Performance, Performance!
While the stock market can be challenging at times, we have been able to consistently identify opportunities for profit. Our Top Guns Trader service live trading record really tells the whole story. Throught 12/31/2009 we have closed 569 trades... 508 were closed for gains (89.3%) with just 61 losing trades (yes, every trading system has some some losers -- don't let anyone tell you differently!).
There are lots of wild claims of success on the internet -- so to show you that we ARE DIFFERENT -- below is a table summarizing every single trade we've closed since we began offering the service to the online public in 2004 -- and remember, all of our trades are "live" so there's NO "cherry picking" going on here!
Top Guns TRADER Service
Trading Scorecard
From 5/1/2004 through 12/31/2009 |
|
Closed
Trades |
Winning
Trades |
Losing
Trades |
%
Winners |
| Cumulative Results: |
569 |
508 |
61 |
89.3% | | |
Real Money Managers Give You a "Professional Edge"
In case we haven't made it clear -- we aren't journalists or individuals who trade stocks as a hobby or to make a little extra money. Each individual on the Top Guns Trader team is a full-time investment professional and our head trader has been managing money for more than 18 years. We've succeeded in bull markets, bear markets, and everything in between.
In other words, unlike most newsletter writers, we are "live" on the firing live every single day and we make our living trading in the stock market.
Managing Risk is Vital
We believe that managing risk is vital to long-term investment success! While there are never any guarantees with investing, the objectives of the management style utilized in all of our Top Guns Portfolios are as follows:
(1) Produce Winning Trading opportunities
(2) Focus on the Leaders and Ignore the Laggards
(3) Reduce Risk During Severe Corrections and Bear Market Cycles
In Bull market environments, we strive to maximize returns with our "own the best and ignore the rest" approach. However, when risk is high (during Bear Markets and severe corrections), our focus shifts to managing risk and preserving capital. Thus, a constant in our management approach is to remain flexible and take advantage of opportunities.
Whatever your objective may be, it is our sincere hope that the Top Guns Trader can help you better navigate the markets and provide ideas to improve your investing performance.
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Wishing you all the best,
David D. Moenning
Editor: Top Guns Trader
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The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of Top Guns Trader and State of the Markets and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his
or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing
sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives
outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject
to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their
affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by
anyone who has relied on the information provided.
A winning trade is recorded during the month the position is closed. The editor may or may not have owned the position during the time it was held. All positions owned by the editor are subject to change without notice. In the event the editor does not purchase a position posted in the trade alert, the trade must be considered to be hypothetical and returns based on the date and price the position was bought and sold.
Returns for the FAB-5 prior to 2008 are a hypothetical implementation of the portfolio strategy allocating equal portions of the portfolio to the TOP 5 positions. Returns for 1/1/2008 through 9/30/2008 are hypothetical implementation of trading alerts based on actual transactions made by the editor in other live portfolios and are before commission costs. The results after 9/30/08 are live trades in a Fab 5 portfolio account and includes payment commissions and account admin fees. Hypothetical returns do not reflect actual trading. Please note that hypothetical test results do not take into account market conditions which could adversely affect management decisions.
The Daily Decision Models are model portfolios. The return calculations for the Main Model and Aggressive from 8/1/09 represent the implementation of the model portfolio strategies based on the trade alerts issued by the service. Returns from 3/6/09 through 7/31/09 represent the implementation of the model portfolio strategy based on the Daily Decision Model signals as published on the website. Return calculations prior to 3/6/2009 represent hypothetical system testing. Returns for the main model assume going long the S&P 500 on buy signals, short the S&P 500 on sell signals, and to cash on neutral signals. Returns for the Aggressive model assume going long Proshares Ultra Russell 2000 ETF on buy signals and short the ETF on sell signals up to 9/2/09 and then implementing the trade alerts thereafter. Returns for the Hybrid model through 8/30/09 mirror the Aggressive model transactions. From 8/30/09 through 9/24/09 the Hybrid model returns assume using the Main Model signals and the Aggressive model positions. Returns after 9/24/09 represent the implementation of the trade alerts thereafter. The return calculations for the Historical System Test are based on system testing from 1/1/1980 through 12/31/2008. From 1/1/1980 through 12/31/1986, historical test results utilized long-only modeling.
Hypothetical system testing and model portfolios do not represent actual trading. It should be noted that backtested results do not take into account payment of commissions or reinvestment of dividends, have inherent limitations, incorporates the benefit of hindsight in the development of the model, and are for informational purposes only.
Your actual results may differ from results reported for the model portfolio for many reasons, including, without limitation: (i) performance results for the model portfolio do not reflect trading commissions that you may or may not incur; (ii) performance results for the model portfolio do not account for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity, that may affect your results; (iii) the securities chosen for the model portfolio may be volatile, and although the "purchase" or "sale" of a security in the model portfolio will not be made in the model portfolio until confirmation that the email alert has been sent to all subscribers, delivery delays and other factors may cause the price you obtain to differ substantially from the price at the time the alert was sent; and (iv) the prices of securities in the model portfolio at the point in time you begin subscribing to our service may be higher than such prices at the time such stocks or options were chosen for inclusion in the model portfolio.
Index returns are price only and do not include the reinvestment of dividends. The S&P 500 is a stock market index containing the stocks of 500 large-cap corporations, most of which are US companies. The index is the most notable of the many indices owned and maintained by Standard & Poor's, a division of McGraw-Hill. S&P 500 is used in reference not only to the index but also to the 500 companies that have their common stock included in the index.
Investments in equities carry risk of principal loss and may lose value. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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